The discussions about who Obama will pick as his running mate are heating up the closer we get to the convention. While this happens every cycle, it is even more heated in this one, primarily because of the closeness of the primary race.
While no one really knows who he will pick, everyone has their own preference. Where it really gets complicated is when it comes to Hillary supporters.
Many Hillary supporters say she is the only choice. If she isn't on the ticket then they won't vote for the Democratic nominee for president. These are the 'pick Hillary or else' crowd. Other Hillary supporters don't think she should accept even if offered the slot. Their argument seems to be that it would be a step down for her. These are the 'top-spot or nothing' crowd. Still others will accept someone other than Hillary as long as it isn't another woman. I guess these are the 'Don't insult Hillary' crowd. Lastly, there are Hillary supporters who are planning on voting for Obama no matter who he picks for his running mate. These are in the 'I just want to win' crowd.
Like I said, it gets really complicated.
What makes it even worse is that no one really knows who is on the short list. Every pundit and news organization has their own idea of who is on the list. Few of these lists agree with each other. However, some names are common to all of the lists and can be considered real possibilities.
Any list that leaves Hillary off is not likely to be an accurate list. The same goes for Governor Sebelius. These are the two women most likely to get the nod. We all know the arguments for and against Hillary. On the other hand, Sebelius is unknown to a lot of people. She has many pluses and some minuses. I don't think it really matters.
There is is a definite reason why I don't think Sebelius will get the nod. I don't think the Obama team can choose another woman for this slot. It's not primarily a matter of insulting Hillary, although that plays into it. I think it's more a matter of seeming to pander by choosing a woman.
There is also the matter of the historic nature of Obama's candidacy. By choosing an African-American as their candidate, the Democratic Party is already pushing the envelope. Adding a woman or another minority to the ticket could be viewed as an unnecessary risk. The only place I don't think this comes into play is if Hillary is picked. It would then be apparent that she was picked on her own merits and not just because she is a woman.
Some of the names on the list are intriguing. Governor Kaine of VA is a good match for Obama, both in philosophy and age. He has the added advantage of being from outside the Beltway. He strengthens Obama's image and does not contrast too strongly with Obama's strengths nor does he emphasize Obama's weaknesses. He is currently considered to be one of the top 3 on the list.
Some of the other names on the list are probably there as feints by the Obama team or because of idle speculation by the media. I think Sam Nunn falls into that category.
Some of the other front-runners are Bayh, and Biden. Each has strengths and weaknesses that I don't really feel like going into. I don't think either one is in the top 3. (Hey, I get to pull stuff out of my a** too. That's where everyone else is getting their list.)
I find it interesting that the intrade markets (search for "vice" give the nod to the field at 35%. Sebelius and Kaine are both included in the field and not listed individually. Among the individual names is Bayh at 25%, Biden at 14%, and then Hillary at 6.3%. The traders here obviously don't agree with me. Then again, they had Hillary as a 2-1 favorite over her nearest competitor on Feb. 15th, so maybe they don't always know what they are talking about.
If you've read this far I will now grace you with my guesses. I've posted these same names in just about every VP discussion over the last month. I still think they are as good a guess as any other.
Number 1 on my list is John Edwards. The recent scandal is troublesome, but may amount to nothing. Bill Clinton had far stronger rumors against him during his first primary and still won not only the primary, but the GE as well. The only person Edwards needs to convince that the story is false is Obama. They could actually use the story to their advantage. They could let speculation run rampant and then not long before the election they could release the results of DNA tests that prove Edwards is not the father. Let the right-wing hang itself with what people finally see as a false smear campaign. The backlash against the Right could be quite large.
Number 2 on my list is Wesley Clark. I think the idea that he somehow hurt his chances because of his remarks about McCain's military career is nonsense. In fact, I think it strengthened his chances at getting the nod. He brings so many good things to the ticket and very, very few negatives.
Number 3 on my list is Hillary Clinton. Yes, she has some negatives. But she also has tremendous positives. I think everyone who is not totally against Hillary would love the choice. Would it energize the base of the Republican Party? Perhaps, but then again the Republican Party is smaller than ever. Would it energize the Democratic Party? Certainly among those who supported Hillary and have expressed doubts about Obama. I think it would bring more good than bad to the party.
There, now you have my 2 1/2 cents (gotta consider inflation) worth.
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