TPM: McCain Outspending Obama in 11 Swing States

According to Greg Sargent at TPM.

The McCain campaign has outspent the Obama camp by hundreds of thousands of dollars, and in some cases by as much as a million dollars or more, in virtually all of the nearly dozen battleground states where both campaigns are up on the air, according to a firm that tracks national advertising.

Evan Tracey, the chief operating officer of TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, confirmed to us in response to our questions that McCain's campaign has racked up a huge ad spending advantage in what he called "traditional battleground states," the states that both campaigns are sinking cash into.

McCain is advertising heavily in 11 traditional battlegrounds; Obama is advertising in those same 11 plus roughly seven more; and McCain holds a heavy advantage in virtually all the 11 shared states.

The comparison is significant, and in one sense it lends comfort to Obama, because McCain has not been able to pull ahead in those states despite vastly outspending him in them. But the flip-side of this is that Obama has not been able to make significant enough headway in many of the seven states where Obama has the airwaves to himself.

Here's the comparison of the two camps' spending on ads up to the present in the 11 states where both are up on the air, according to Tracey:

   Iowa: McCain has spent roughly $700,000 more than Obama.

   Missouri: McCain has spent roughly half a million more than Obama.

   Ohio: McCain has spent approximately one million more than Obama.

   Pennsylvania: McCain has spent roughly a million and a half more than Obama.

   New Hampshire: Spending is about even.

   New Mexico: McCain has spent approximately $300,000 more, and has outspent Obama by roughly two to one.

   Nevada: McCain has outspent Obama by $800,000, also roughly two to one.

   Missouri: McCain has spent $500,000 more than Obama.

   Virginia: Obama has spent a million more than McCain, largely because Obama is advertising statewide while McCain is only up in the northern part of the state.

   Wisconsin: McCain has spent roughly a half million more than Obama.

   North Dakota: Obama has outspent McCain by around $170,000.

I can personally attest to the Wisconsin numbers. Over the past week, I've seen at least 6 McCain ads here in Milwaukee, compared to the first Obama one last night during the Olympics. That McCain is spending so heavily in Milwaukee is itself astonishing. This is a city that voted 73% for Kerry in 2004 and went almost as massively for Obama over Hillary during the primary. But McCain has gained significant ground in the past month, having been down by 13 to now only 5. Obama really needs to step up his game otherwise I fear that this could become a red state in November.



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You Concerned? Me, not so much..... (2.00 / 2)

Got any numbers on how much more Axelrod is spending to set up ground operations in those states, GOTV and Registration projects then the RNC?

You don't, and the pundits don't either, neither do the networks, and you won't see teeth gnashing, and wrist slashing, and ALL KINDS of concern about it...

And, that is Exactly how Obama and his campaign want it.

The polls swing around like a weathervane on a midwest barn, McCain is burning through ALL his cash now, advertising his guts out...

Axelrod KNOWS this will be one by turnout and new voters and driving Obama's core out in record number in those states he needs.

Kind of like he did in the primary?

Rayj, your concern for, what is it, the 5th time in 10 days, is duely noted; but I think you might want to tell your buds in Big-Kitty land, the Republics are more concerned then you are....


On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!
by WashStateBlue on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 06:24:23 PM EST

McCain has to spend his primary monies (none / 0)

before the GOP convention, after which he will take public financing.


by parahammer on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 06:24:51 PM EST

In NC I would rather have (2.00 / 1)

16 offices and 100 plus staffers than some TV ads.


by parahammer on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 06:25:53 PM EST

Wisconsin (none / 0)

That Obama is only leading by five is according to one Rasmussen poll.  The other recent Wisconsin polls show an Obama lead of around eight points if my recollection is correct.

Just as it would be foolish to claim that McCain is within three of Obama in Oregon based on one poll (Rasmussen shows Obama up ten, so average of the two polls is a seven point lead), it would be foolish to do so in this case; now if Quinnipiac shows Obama only up five in Wisconsin tomorrow, then Obama may have some problems in the state.


by Blazers Edge on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 06:42:18 PM EST

Re: Wisconsin (none / 0)

I think if you go back to the primary, Obama was a good closer, less in the back half of the primary, but good closing strength none-the-less.

I think, with Axelrod setting up the GOTV/Registration team, when Obama post the convention starts to campaign HARD in these states, THEN I will start to watch the polls.

Which is why, I surely want a firebrand out there with him on the stump, Hillary would be amazing, Wes would be great....

But, my take is, the Obama campaign is timing this, they know these are the dog days.

Let's see how the convention goes, and hopefully he doesn't do something dumb like pick Bayh instead of Hillary or Biden for some odd reason.


On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!
by WashStateBlue on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 06:48:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TPM: McCain Outspending Obama (2.00 / 1)

The article refers to television advertising.  Most of Obama's expenditures are going to organization at the moment.  McCain is "outspending" on TV just as Obama is "outspending" on organization.


by rfahey22 on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 06:45:28 PM EST

General isn't the Primary (none / 0)

Advertising matters more in the general than the ground game.  

Obama won the primary race by using his money in the small states to target a select group of voters.  That proved to be very wise.  That won't carry the day in the General, however.

I hope Obama isn't pouring a lot of money into organizing in the friggin' Dakotas.   Bush could afford the luxery of ego in '00 when he poured millions into Cali convinced somehow he could win.   Obama can't.  He needs to focus on the map like a lazor beam.


by RichardFlatts on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 06:46:58 PM EST

Can I see your source for that argument? (none / 0)

"Advertising matters more in the general than the ground game."

You got ANY back-up for that statement?

Plenty of information about the power of the Republic GOTV campaign that makes that argument look silly.

Or, do you JUST make negative statements about Obama?  I have not seen you post ANYTHING since you arrive but carping about this, that or the other thing.

Bush emptied the fricking churches, his ground game won it for him in the midwest battle ground states.


On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!
by WashStateBlue on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 06:52:18 PM EST

Re: Let them (none / 0)

I argue that the Dems fundraising mechanism isn't in full force yet and won't be until after the Olympics.

Let the McCain campaign shoot that thick wad they have early and then try to catch up.

The Olympics pulled 30.1 million viewers on a Saturday night during the FREAKIN summer.  Do you really believe the American electorate is truly engaged?  NOT!


I'm riding the Low Road Express. Join me at www.lowroadexpress.com
by LtWorf on Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 07:12:30 PM EST


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